The fossilized birth-death model for the analysis of stratigraphic range data under different speciation concepts

A birth-death-sampling model gives rise to phylogenetic trees with samples from the past and the present. Interpreting "birth" as branching speciation, "death" as extinction, and "sampling" as fossil preservation and recovery, this model -- also referred to as the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model -- gives rise to phylogenetic trees on extant and fossil samples. The model has been mathematically analyzed and successfully applied to a range of datasets on different taxonomic levels, such as penguins, plants, and insects. However, the current mathematical treatment of this model does not allow for a group of temporally distinct fossil specimens to be assigned to the same species. In this paper, we provide a general mathematical FBD modeling framework that explicitly takes "stratigraphic ranges" into account, with a stratigraphic range being defined as the lineage interval associated with a single species, ranging through time from the first to the last fossil appearance of the species. To assign a sequence of fossil samples in the phylogenetic tree to the same species, i.e., to specify a stratigraphic range, we need to define the mode of speciation. We provide expressions to account for three common speciation modes: budding (or asymmetric) speciation, bifurcating (or symmetric) speciation, and anagenetic speciation. Our equations allow for flexible joint Bayesian analysis of paleontological and neontological data. Furthermore, our framework is directly applicable to epidemiology, where a stratigraphic range is the observed duration of infection of a single patient, "birth" via budding is transmission, "death" is recovery, and "sampling" is sequencing the pathogen of a patient. Thus, we present a model that allows for incorporation of multiple observations through time from a single patient

The inseparability of sampling and time and its influence on attempts to unify the molecular and fossil records

The two major approaches to studying macroevolution in deep time are the fossil record and reconstructed relationships among extant taxa from molecular data. Results based on one approach sometimes conflict with those based on the other, with inconsistencies often attributed to inherent flaws of one (or the other) data source. What is unquestionable is that both the molecular and fossil records are limited reflections of the same evolutionary history, and any contradiction between them represents a failure of our existing models to explain the patterns we observe. Fortunately, the different limitations of each record provide an opportunity to test or calibrate the other, and new methodological developments leverage both records simultaneously. However, we must reckon with the distinct relationships between sampling and time in the fossil record and molecular phylogenies. These differences impact our recognition of baselines, and the analytical incorporation of age estimate uncertainty. These differences in perspective also influence how different practitioners view the past and evolutionary time itself, bearing important implications for the generality of methodological advancements, and differences in the philosophical approach to macroevolutionary theory across fields.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure. All others contributed equally to this wor

Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses

Assessing the impact of incomplete species sampling on estimates of speciation and extinction rates

Estimating speciation and extinction rates is essential for understanding past and present biodiversity, but is challenging given the incompleteness of the rock and fossil records. Interest in this topic has led to a divergent suite of independent methods—paleontological estimates based on sampled stratigraphic ranges and phylogenetic estimates based on the observed branching times in a given phylogeny of living species. The fossilized birth–death (FBD) process is a model that explicitly recognizes that the branching events in a phylogenetic tree and sampled fossils were generated by the same underlying diversification process. A crucial advantage of this model is that it incorporates the possibility that some species may never be sampled. Here, we present an FBD model that estimates tree-wide diversification rates from stratigraphic range data when the underlying phylogeny of the fossil taxa may be unknown. The model can be applied when only occurrence data for taxonomically identified fossils are available, but still accounts for the incomplete phylogenetic structure of the data. We tested this new model using simulations and focused on how inferences are impacted by incomplete fossil recovery. We compared our approach with a phylogenetic model that does not incorporate incomplete species sampling and to three fossil-based alternatives for estimating diversification rates, including the widely implemented boundary-crosser and three-timer methods. The results of our simulations demonstrate that estimates under the FBD model are robust and more accurate than the alternative methods, particularly when fossil data are sparse, as the FBD model incorporates incomplete species sampling explicitly

Early cephalopod evolution clarified through Bayesian phylogenetic inference

Background: Despite the excellent fossil record of cephalopods, their early evolution is poorly understood. Different, partly incompatible phylogenetic hypotheses have been proposed in the past, which reflected individual author's opinions on the importance of certain characters but were not based on thorough cladistic analyses. At the same time, methods of phylogenetic inference have undergone substantial improvements. For fossil datasets, which typically only include morphological data, Bayesian inference and in particular the introduction of the fossilized birth-death model have opened new possibilities. Nevertheless, many tree topologies recovered from these new methods reflect large uncertainties, which have led to discussions on how to best summarize the information contained in the posterior set of trees. Results: We present a large, newly compiled morphological character matrix of Cambrian and Ordovician cephalopods to conduct a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis and resolve existing controversies. Our results recover three major monophyletic groups, which correspond to the previously recognized Endoceratoidea, Multiceratoidea, and Orthoceratoidea, though comprising slightly different taxa. In addition, many Cambrian and Early Ordovician representatives of the Ellesmerocerida and Plectronocerida were recovered near the root. The Ellesmerocerida is para- and polyphyletic, with some of its members recovered among the Multiceratoidea and early Endoceratoidea. These relationships are robust against modifications of the dataset. While our trees initially seem to reflect large uncertainties, these are mainly a consequence of the way clade support is measured. We show that clade posterior probabilities and tree similarity metrics often underestimate congruence between trees, especially if wildcard taxa are involved. Conclusions: Our results provide important insights into the earliest evolution of cephalopods and clarify evolutionary pathways. We provide a classification scheme that is based on a robust phylogenetic analysis. Moreover, we provide some general insights on the application of Bayesian phylogenetic inference on morphological datasets. We support earlier findings that quartet similarity metrics should be preferred over the Robinson-Foulds distance when higher-level phylogenetic relationships are of interest and propose that using a posteriori pruned maximum clade credibility trees help in assessing support for phylogenetic relationships among a set of relevant taxa, because they provide clade support values that better reflect the phylogenetic signal.Peer reviewe

International Stem Cell Collaboration: How Disparate Policies between the United States and the United Kingdom Impact Research

As the scientific community globalizes, it is increasingly important to understand the effects of international collaboration on the quality and quantity of research produced. While it is generally assumed that international collaboration enhances the quality of research, this phenomenon is not well examined. Stem cell research is unique in that it is both politically charged and a research area that often generates international collaborations, making it an ideal case through which to examine international collaborations. Furthermore, with promising medical applications, the research area is dynamic and responsive to a globalizing science environment. Thus, studying international collaborations in stem cell research elucidates the role of existing international networks in promoting quality research, as well as the effects that disparate national policies might have on research. This study examined the impact of collaboration on publication significance in the United States and the United Kingdom, world leaders in stem cell research with disparate policies. We reviewed publications by US and UK authors from 2008, along with their citation rates and the political factors that may have contributed to the number of international collaborations. The data demonstrated that international collaborations significantly increased an article's impact for UK and US investigators. While this applied to UK authors whether they were corresponding or secondary, this effect was most significant for US authors who were corresponding authors. While the UK exhibited a higher proportion of international publications than the US, this difference was consistent with overall trends in international scientific collaboration. The findings suggested that national stem cell policy differences and regulatory mechanisms driving international stem cell research in the US and UK did not affect the frequency of international collaborations, or even the countries with which the US and UK most often collaborated. Geographical and traditional collaborative relationships were the predominate considerations in establishing international collaborations

The Fossil Calibration Database—A New Resource for Divergence Dating

Fossils provide the principal basis for temporal calibrations, which are critical to the accuracy of divergence dating analyses. Translating fossil data into minimum and maximum bounds for calibrations is the most important—often least appreciated—step of divergence dating. Properly justified calibrations require the synthesis of phylogenetic, paleontological, and geological evidence and can be difficult for nonspecialists to formulate. The dynamic nature of the fossil record (e.g., new discoveries, taxonomic revisions, updates of global or local stratigraphy) requires that calibration data be updated continually lest they become obsolete. Here, we announce the Fossil Calibration Database (http://fossilcalibrations.org), a new open-access resource providing vetted fossil calibrations to the scientific community. Calibrations accessioned into this database are based on individual fossil specimens and follow best practices for phylogenetic justification and geochronological constraint. The associated Fossil Calibration Series, a calibration-themed publication series at Palaeontologia Electronica, will serve as a key pipeline for peer-reviewed calibrations to enter the databas

The Fossil Calibration Database, A New Resource for Divergence Dating

Fossils provide the principal basis for temporal calibrations, which are critical to the accuracy of divergence dating analyses. Translating fossil data into minimum and maximum bounds for calibrations is the most important, and often least appreciated, step of divergence dating. Properly justified calibrations require the synthesis of phylogenetic, paleontological, and geological evidence and can be difficult for non- specialists to formulate. The dynamic nature of the fossil record (e.g., new discoveries, taxonomic revisions, updates of global or local stratigraphy) requires that calibration data be updated continually lest they become obsolete. Here, we announce the Fossil Calibration Database (http://fossilcalibrations.org), a new open- access resource providing vetted fossil calibrations to the scientific community. Calibrations accessioned into this database are based on individual fossil specimens and follow best practices for phylogenetic justification and geochronological constraint. The associated Fossil Calibration Series, a calibration-themed publication series at Palaeontologia Electronica, will serve as one key pipeline for peer-reviewed calibrations to enter the database